Crown Rim Tim Tagi Dim!

 

It is almost six months since the day we have heard the first song for the season and here we are! 

Semi - Final 1 is here to entertain us and the two halves feel like the yin and yang.

The first half is one of the stronger we ever had while the second one is one of the weakest ever.

We had the conversation throughout the season that the impossible would happen and we could have 7/7 qualifications from the first half, something that has never happened.

The market suggests that it will happen, but I am more optimistic with a 6/7. If there is justice, all seven should have qualified because the second half does not have more than three entries that deserve to be in the Final. 

So these are my thoughts for tonight.

Cyprus is sailing to the Final being the ideal opener. Its current odds are at 1.31 fair but with no value in my opinion.

Serbia has an entry that if in second half, would have easily qualified to the Final, but this is not an ordinary lineup and Serbia has everything against them. Very few allies and diaspora present in the Semi - Final, the death slot at #2. Since 2013 that we have the producers choosing the running order, there were only 3 entries that managed to be in the Public vote's Top-10 (Armenia x 2, Poland) both countries with big enough diaspora to back them and help them qualify. 

Add to that the fact that Serbia is qualifying with difficulty every year and I think the time for a non qualification has come after 2013, when they failed to qualify performing from the pimp slot. 

The first half of 'Ramonda' is taking a while to lift off and that might cost them. Having the three direct qualifiers also performing prolongs the duration of the Semi - Final as well and Serbia will be forgotten by the time we reach the last entry.

I have been laying Serbia since the running order was decided and this will be my main bet for tonight. The lay is currently at 1.67 (NQ 2.48). I will be happy if they qualify but for all the reasons mentioned above the non qualification is the value bet.

Lithuania will be battling for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi - Final currently at 2.76 in the exchange market. There is a precedent in Semi - Final 2 back in 2018 (Public vote only) where all three entries finishing in Top-3 came from the first half. I will not tip it but I do have it in my book. 

Ireland has produced one of the best theatrical three minutes we have ever seen in Eurovision. They have gone all in and that was the proper way to do it. Bambie Thug is a great performer and this will be the talk of the town in the next few days. The Irish are ready to go crazy and I could see this one trading in single odds if they get a second half draw. Of course Ireland is not winning Eurovision, but in a public vote only Semi - Final they could finish in Top-3 (1.70 Bf exchange).

I do find the odds a bit short but I have taken a different bet with Ireland included. 

For those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers forecasts (1-2) for the Semi - Finals and the combination 1.Croatia - 2. Ireland is at 13!!! This could be a fun bet or a moderate bet, a low risk high rewards approach.

Ukraine is the first contender for the night and the market has not been impressed. The problem is that their staging is missing a story. There are beautiful shots that are not connected to each other and the two girls interact only in the last few seconds. Top-3 in the Semi is more or less secured but there is no value in my opinion. 

Poland is the weakest entry vocally in that first half and maybe the whole Semi- Final. The qualifying odds are very short but Poland has never had a problem being in Top-10 with the Public vote (only '21 missed the Top-10) and even though I am tempted, I will leave Luna alone.

I would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight.

Croatia was trading at 5+ just a week ago and currently is trading at 2.32! I have been backing Croatia since late January so I am more than happy with my position on them. Winning the Semi - Final at 1.32 feels short but there is no chance someone else is winning tonight.

Baby Lasagna is improving every time he is on stage and the staging has improved a lot since Dora two and a half months ago. 

The crowds' reactions yesterday and the singalong in the second part along with the closing seconds are the only winning vibes we have seen so far this year.

Iceland coming after Croatia I reckon is EBU's payback time for what happened in Iceland's national final and a subtle way to send a message for the future. The weakest entry of all this year by far.

Slovenia has gradually lost ground and the staging has not added anything to help their cause. Raiven is vocally excellent but these are three very long minutes in a very underwhelming part of the Semi - Final and only Serbia and Croatia there to secure them 12-18 points. They will need more than 45-50 to feel safe and I struggle to see where they will come from. My average lay on them is at 1.94 but there is no value there currently.

Finland it is what it is and I do believe that it will qualify but I don't think it will do particularly well. It is fun but does not really offer a reason for someone to vote for it. If we had the 50/50 system I would be tempted to oppose it but there is no reason to do it now.

Moldova is the biggest riser since yesterday and not only is back in the qualification race but I do believe that it will qualify, favored by the four entries coming before it. It gives them credibility, the staging is simple but effective and Natalia's vocal abilities do stand out. It is trading at 5 to qualify in various betting companies and this is the best value odds someone can find tonight. 

The fair odds should have been at 2.50-2.75 so I am happy to lose that bet everyday. This will be the second tip for tonight.

Azerbaijan does not have a bad song but there is no reason for someone to vote for them. Last place in the Semi - Final could happen.

Australia has a simple but beautiful staging but I am not sure the casual viewers will vote an aboriginal song and how relevant could that be for Eurovision. The last thirty seconds are very shaky as well. Australia is a borderline by definition and could go both ways. I am not tipping something here but I do think that Moldova will be the one to claim that last ticket.

Portugal has the best minimalistic staging of all entries and it does suit their entry 100%. A few weeks ago were trading at odds on and currently their qualifications odds are at 1.28. A bit short for my taste.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers  a Head to head versus Slovenia at 1.66. This could be used to maximize the qualification value.

Luxembourg will be closing the Semi - Final and there are multiple mentions during the show about their return after 31 years. Sailing to the Final.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers the Top-5 in Semi - Final at 2.35 and there is definitely value there.

My classification for tonight is the following

1. Croatia 140-160 pts

2. Ireland 110-130 pts

3. Ukraine 100-120 pts

4. Lithuania 90-110

5. Luxembourg 70-90

6. Finland 60-80

7. Cyprus 55-75

8. Poland 50-70

9. Portugal 50-65

10. Moldova 45-65

11. Serbia 35-55

12. Australia 30-50

13. Slovenia 25-45

14. Azerbaijan 15-35

15. Iceland 0-10

I do think that the first nine entries are more or less certain qualifiers and the tenth spot will be a battle between Moldova, Serbia and Australia. 

And now the fun time!! My tips for the Semi - Final. You can read my betting resolution for 2024 here.

I have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

I have decided to minimize my bets and aim for accuracy this year so there will be only two tips for Semi - Final 1

Serbia lay @ 1.67 (NQ 2.48) x 75 units

Moldova to qualify @ 5.00 (multiple companies) x 25 units

Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be active in X after the Semi - Final to comment on the results.

Semi - Final 1 - Dress rehearsal

 

Here we are then! The first Dress Rehearsal for the Semi -Final 1 is coming to an end in a few minutes. 

SVT has prepared a beautiful show and there are many familiar faces opening the Semi - Final. 

The postcards start with two former entries of each country and that might be a problem with some nations that have not been that successful in the recent past.

But is time to have a look to the contestants.

Cyprus is a great choice for the opening act. The dark background does create a beautiful contrast with Silia's and dancers' white clothes that represent innocence and youth. Silia is vocally fine and this is sailing to the Final.

Serbia has better camera angles than the ones that we saw last week but it is very dark in some parts with Teya Dora almost invincible. Similar staging to PZE with a few minor changes. The last minute with the ramonda flower rising from the rock is the moment. Could it be enough for them to qualify? Still puzzled with this one. 

Lithuania has a similar staging to the national final and it is slick. Lithuania still going under the radar for a Top-10 result imo. Very powerful.

Ireland is by far the moment of the Semi - Final. Bambie Thug is giving a theatrical show for the ages. Aggressive? Yes! Not everyone's cup of tea? Yes! But it works!!! Ireland is back in the Final and will be the talk of the town the next few days. A great bet that Ireland has taken and now is paying dividends! Bambie was out of breath by the end and the Crown the Witch moto at the background is the perfect closing for this three minute experience.

UK has a great staging as well, overly sensual but impressive at the same time. Juries will mark this one high for the staging concept but Olly was shaky at times. 

Ukraine has used the best part of their entry in the 30 seconds snippet that propelled their odds. The staging is beautiful but it feels a bit incoherent. Beautiful shots and ideas on stage that are missing a specific narrative and story. There is very little connection and interaction between the two girls. Ukraine should be among the contenders but is missing something in my opinion.

Poland have placed themselves in danger and this will be a great case study for the Polish diaspora. I do like the staging a lot but Luna's vocals were by far the weakest of the first half and maybe the whole Semi - Final. Sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia will have a hard time tomorrow night.

Croatia. There was a problem with the stream and was able to watch just the last minute or so. What I have seen was a much improved version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna more confident and vocally fine. The pyros in the end gave the winning moment.

Iceland felt very irrelevant after Croatia and there is nothing Hera could do to turn this one into a qualifier. Simple but nice staging though.

Germany has turned their stage in a cozy living room with a fireplace but Isaak lacks energy in the first half. It gets better by the end but Germany has become relevant again for the last place conversation.

Slovenia recreated the atmosphere from their music video and Raiven is just stunning vocally but this is entry that could work in the 50/50 era and not in a public vote only Semi with Finland coming after them.

Finland has also kept the same concept they had in their national final and it is what it is. A fun three minutes that has nothing else to offer. Would love to oppose them to the qualifying market but don't think they will fail to qualify.

Moldova has been the pleasant surprise of the day and they are back to fight for one of the remaining tickets of the Final. a beautiful backdrop and Natalia's voice make Moldova feel like a credible and quality entry coming after Finland. A huge improvement.

Sweden looks amazing and slick and the boys are getting better as well. Not my cup of tea but I do recognize the staging quality there. This is a serious Top-10 contender for the Final even from the opening slot.

Azerbaijan has a very AI staging that has zero connection to the song, trying to replicate the effectiveness of their '19 gimmick with the robot. There is no reason for someone to pick up the phone and vote for this one.

Australia has many allies in the Semi - Final and a great running order but I felt that their staging was very underwhelming and a tad boring. I have moved them to my non qualifiers list but have not made my mind 100% yet.

Portugal has opted for a minimalistic staging that does work for iOLANDA. The odds for qualification are short but there is no way they are missing the Final.

Luxembourg will be back in the Semi - Final after 31 years! This is a fact. Simple but effective staging and Tali with a more girlie look that suits her better.

Later tonight there will be a new 'Talk About Things' episode talking about tonight's action and of course tomorrow there will be the traditional post with the betting tips for Semi - Final 1.

The last post before everything goes back to zero

 

It is always funny to go back to the previous years and read the posts before and after the Semi - Finals.

Some of the posts have aged nicely like a fine wine while others feel more like a sci-fi film screenplay.

So let's have a look of what happened last week and if there are any changes in the market.

Croatia is the new market leader that emerged during last week, taking back the reigns from Switzerland. 

Rehearsals were fine and what we have seen is a polished version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna feeling more comfortable on stage.

I still think that the underdog narrative suits him better, but this could also apply to Croatia that has not won the Contest yet as an independent nation.

Netherlands' rehearsals have solidified Croatia as the most probable public vote winner and there is the notion that Croatia will be the first country after the neighboring trio of France, Switzerland and Italy in the jury voting.

My estimation for Croatia is in the 175-200 threshold that could be more than enough to secure the win.

Switzerland entered the rehearsals as the big favorite and after a few photos and a 30 seconds snippet the verdict was that it feels a bit chaotic and the dress selection is not ideal. I do agree with the second part but need to see the full three minutes to decide on this one.

Losing momentum after the rehearsals have started is not a great sign and remains to be seen if the Swiss have still a hidden ace up their sleeves.

They have also lost their momentum as the probable Jury winner with France being their main rival and this does not look good either.

Ukraine is the biggest 'winner' of last week reminding people that if there is one country that knows how to properly stage their entries and get the maximum out of them is Ukraine.

Ukraine has established their position somewhere in Top-4 and remains to be seen how high they can reach.

I am still very skeptical about their winning path. I currently have them 5th-6th (165-125 pts) with the Juries and 3rd-4th (215-185 pts) with the public vote.

There is the narrative about the diaspora that propelled an average song last year to finish sixth in the end and 'Teresa & Maria' is more powerful and could finish higher.

I do agree and it will finish higher, however I still have my doubts. I do think that Ukraine could maybe finish  second in the public vote with approximately 250 pts but Juries will keep them short enough from the first place. 

They really need to boost their public vote score to have a chance.

Italy is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to create a momentum. Every time that they have gained some traction, something emerges and they linger around the fourth place.

They gained a momentum after Netherlands fell short and next day Ukraine came to take the spot. My objection about Italy, and I might be wrong, is that it feels like the perfect default winner: an entry that cannot win any constituency but could be near the top with both. 

That might be the case, but at the same time the Jury top implies that we will have a Top-3 between 200-250 points and Italy is the least secured of the leading trio to finish there. 

The same applies to the public vote. Croatia and Ukraine are a step ahead of them, Netherlands has lost some steam but their televote will still be impressive and big enough to pass Italy and we also have the x factors like Israel, Switzerland and Greece that could move Italy further down. 

What we have seen in the 30 seconds snippet is not worrying of course but also has not elevated the entry somehow to consider them either a Jury or Public vote winner.

The fact that Switzerland is still above them in odds after all the criticism about their staging says something about Italy's potential as well.

I do think that they have opted for the serious/contender approach that tones down the fun elements of the song.

After the leading pack there is another group of entries that are either emerging (France, Ireland), are more or less where they used to be a week ago (Israel) or lost most of their hype (Netherlands)

Netherlands is by far the biggest 'loser' of last week but I do think that this was a market correction after a few weeks of heavy promo and creating hype that lead to their odds' drift. I still find their odds short keeping in mind that they will struggle with Juries heavy time, estimating 50-75 jury points at the moment. 

I do think that they have taken a calculated risk to boost their entry before rehearsals and reach number one by the time of the Semi - Finals but it has not produced the results they were expecting.

We need the three minutes staging to properly assess this one and could still be in contention for the public vote win, but the big bird on stage is a jury red flag.

People gradually realize that France could be the Jury winner and they are still behind the leading pack in public vote but Slimane could actually score better than people might think. 

Ireland is the other big 'winner' of the week and I wonder if they will reach single digit odds in case they qualify and they get a second half draw. 

It has been a month since I posted my estimations about the winner here. And I am more than happy to enter the Contest with that estimation, having projected Switzerland and Croatia as my Top-2, Italy and Ukraine were my default winners' tier two and then Netherlands, France and Israel following. This could very well be the Final's Top-7 and I will be thrilled with that outcome.

I do think that this is a very good sign that I am heading to the right direction this year. The only thing that has changed since then is that I am more confident for Croatia to win.

This is my current winner and the less vulnerable of the ones leading the odds.

Regarding the two Semi - Finals there are a few changes but nothing ground breaking so far. 

In Semi - Final 1 I do think that the final qualification spot will be between Serbia and Australia while in Semi - Final 2 things have become more complicated. There are at least thirteen or fourteen entries which they have an actual chance to qualify and that is very exciting, offering great values both for shock qualifiers and non qualifiers.

As of today, I will be posting my thoughts on X during the dress rehearsals and of course at the end of the day there will be a synopsis of the day from the dress rehearsals and the jury shows.

You will also have the special posts with the betting tips and my estimations for the Semi - Finals and the Final and of course new episodes of your favorite Eurovision podcast Talk About Things with Matt Rickard and Panos Zannettos.

 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Latvia

First Thoughts:

Has the time come for Latvia to finally return to the Final for the first time since 2016?

Luck was not on their side when the allocation draw happened a few months ago.

EBU tried to help by placing Latvia early on the second half to keep them as far away possible from the public vote magnets that are stuck in the closing of the Semi - Final.

'Hollow' was Latvia's best chance from Supernova's lineup and its music video and studio version are competent enough. It is an accessible power ballad that does have an audience.

The biggest problem has been the staging and Don's connection with the camera.

In theory the quality of the song should have been enough for the qualification but there is some tough competition with Denmark and Belgium fighting for the points coming from their common target group.

Current odds and polls are against it but for the moment it still has a chance to qualify but remains to be seen if it has enough on stage to take the attention away from Dons because he is not engaging enough with the camera.

I do have him on my qualifying list, but he could be the first one to miss out next week.

If they make it to the Final though, Latvia could achieve a mid-table result achieving a great score with the Juries that could propel them close to the Top-10.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-55

F: J: 50-150 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 75-200

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia is borderline that could go both ways. There is value on its current price to qualify but it needs many things to go its way.

Not written off yet but it will be tough.

 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Ladaniva have been among the biggest 'winners' of the pre-parties season.

An excellent choice from Armenia that will bring lots of energy on stage.

'Jako' is not a sophisticated song, it is made to come alive on stage and get the crowd going.

I don't know if it could reach the 'Trenuletul' levels of public vote but it is a locked Top-10 with that constituency.

Eurojury has also been kind to them so if these results get replicated next week, we might have a solid Top-10 candidate. 

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them and remains to be seen who will do better between them and Greece that is also fishing in the same pond genre wise and also the same geographic area for the higher points.

I do think that a left-hand side result is almost certain and Armenia will have one of the wildest reactions from the crowd.

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-6/8

Worst case scenario:

14th-16th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

F: J: 30-90 - PV: 75-175 - Tot: 105-265

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia sailing to the Final and then, depending on the running order, getting a result near the Top-10. 

9th-12th is where I currently have them. 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Denmark

 

First Thoughts:

Denmark has taken a few steps back when it comes to its national final the last decade.

They do have one of the best produced finals which at the same time produces weak Eurovision finalists.

Saba was the best thing that they had this year and she managed to win DMGP thanks to her jury performance.

The problem is that the Juries will not be there in the Semi - Final and Denmark will have to dig deeper to find the 45-55 points that would secure them a spot in the Final.

'Sand' is a radio friendly entry that could struggle to stand out in a lineup with so many public vote oriented entries. 

Saba is a very talented and competent performer and she is the main selling point of the song. 

Qualification is not out of the question but the lack of allies in the Semi, along with the running order is making things complicated.

In order to secure a place in the Final she will need to leave behind her both Latvia and Belgium. 

Currently I have Denmark as a borderline non qualifier on my list with something like 45% vs 55%.

If Saba makes it to the Final though, a mid table result is within reach expecting a Top-10 or near Top-10 result with the Juries and a few public vote points from neighbors and friends.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result (13th-18th)

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-60

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 10-30 - Tot: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Denmark finishing 11th-12th in the Semi - Final being single digit short from the qualification threshold.

Happy to reconsider their fate next week when we will have more about their staging.